STATIC DISCHARGE
"A Place Where I Leak Things" or the worrisome and anxiety riddled antics of skye thorstenson.


Sunday, June 05, 2005  

A brief review of an article proposing that rates of global innovation have been declining in recent decades, since 1914 by an analysis of U.S. patents, which seems contradicted by independent data, and since 1873 by a subjective analysis of "important innovations," which may have greater general merit. I disagree with the author's analysis with regard to technological innovation as we might generally define it, which appears to be increasingly rapid, autonomous, and occurring more below the threshold of human perception with each passing year, while a number of objectively measurable technological capacities (Moore's law, etc.) continue to grow at exponential or slightly superexponential rates. But it seems at least plausible that there has been a decline in rates of human-initiated innovation (as opposed to that initiated by our technologies) and in subjective or apparent innovation rates, specifically, technological advances that are easily observable and classifiable by human beings. Two other factors that might be contributing to Huebner's observation of declining innovation in the human domain are an apparent saturation of fixed human needs by our accelerating technologies, and the abstract, higher-order, and incremental nature of innovation in today's increasingly virtual and human-surpassing digital environment. If replicable, this article's findings have important implications for better innovation metrics in a world of continuously accelerating change. In the context of other papers on innovation saturation, some also referenced here, Huebner's study may indicate a need for us to learn how to see and measure innovation from a technological, not just a human perspective in coming years.

posted by Mister Skye | 9:14 PM
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